Old-Tulemused ja uuringud
How does social media content diffuse societies? Building a predictive model based on public metrics of Facebook content
The aim of the research was to explore how Facebook’s public metrics can be used to predict content’s potential for virality and spread in society.
To better understand the actual spread of information from Facebook, we mapped 10 viral posts on Facebook and then conducted an street survey (n=631) in Estonia, asking respondents if they had seen the content of these posts to measure what the actuarial reach of the posts was in society. Based on this data we we conducted regression analysis to determine the relationships between publicly available Facebook metrics and the post diffusion in society. Finally, we built a social media diffusion model that can predict reach of Facebook posts based on the public metrics.
The study shows that comments are the strongest factor in predicting the reach of posts and that actions by followers are not as influential as actions by people outside the content owner’s network.
Diana Poudel, University of Tartu
Whether their goal is to amass a following, oppose environmentally friendly policies, or resist what they perceive as “totalitarian global control”, a diverse group of disinformation spreaders has shifted its focus to the topic of climate change. This report provides an overview of how climate misinformation is disseminated in the Baltic States, shedding light on the tactics and actors involved in spreading false or misleading information on the topic of climate change.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24th last year has altered its longstanding efforts to influence the information landscape of Latvia and the Baltic States through disinformation campaigns. This report highlights the central themes in these campaigns, ranging from accusations of widespread Russophobia to portrayals of Western countries as intellectual concentration camps. These narratives serve the Kremlin’s objectives of influencing public opinion and advancing its interests in the region.
In the wake of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, pro-Kremlin disinformation campaigns have intensified their efforts to influence narratives in the Baltic States, particularly Latvia. These campaigns exploit a variety of themes to cast Russia as the victim and portray Latvia’s actions as hostile. A recurring theme is Latvia’s alleged subservience to Western countries and their policies, as well as its perceived role in fueling Russophobia and nationalism. This report delves into these narratives, highlighting their core elements and objectives while providing a comprehensive overview of the disinformation tactics employed.
Old-Tulemused ja uuringud
How does social media content diffuse societies? Building a predictive model based on public metrics of Facebook content
The aim of the research was to explore how Facebook’s public metrics can be used to predict content’s potential for virality and spread in society.
To better understand the actual spread of information from Facebook, we mapped 10 viral posts on Facebook and then conducted an street survey (n=631) in Estonia, asking respondents if they had seen the content of these posts to measure what the actuarial reach of the posts was in society. Based on this data we we conducted regression analysis to determine the relationships between publicly available Facebook metrics and the post diffusion in society. Finally, we built a social media diffusion model that can predict reach of Facebook posts based on the public metrics.
The study shows that comments are the strongest factor in predicting the reach of posts and that actions by followers are not as influential as actions by people outside the content owner’s network.
Diana Poudel, University of Tartu
Whether their goal is to amass a following, oppose environmentally friendly policies, or resist what they perceive as “totalitarian global control”, a diverse group of disinformation spreaders has shifted its focus to the topic of climate change. This report provides an overview of how climate misinformation is disseminated in the Baltic States, shedding light on the tactics and actors involved in spreading false or misleading information on the topic of climate change.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24th last year has altered its longstanding efforts to influence the information landscape of Latvia and the Baltic States through disinformation campaigns. This report highlights the central themes in these campaigns, ranging from accusations of widespread Russophobia to portrayals of Western countries as intellectual concentration camps. These narratives serve the Kremlin’s objectives of influencing public opinion and advancing its interests in the region.
In the wake of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, pro-Kremlin disinformation campaigns have intensified their efforts to influence narratives in the Baltic States, particularly Latvia. These campaigns exploit a variety of themes to cast Russia as the victim and portray Latvia’s actions as hostile. A recurring theme is Latvia’s alleged subservience to Western countries and their policies, as well as its perceived role in fueling Russophobia and nationalism. This report delves into these narratives, highlighting their core elements and objectives while providing a comprehensive overview of the disinformation tactics employed.
