HOT REPORT | Russia Is “Not Interested” in Lithuania – A Narrative Designed to Undermine Defence

BECID’s new Hot Report examines a persistent pro-Kremlin narrative claiming that Russia poses no real threat to Lithuania and that strengthening national defence is therefore unnecessary.

The narrative combines several messages: Russia is portrayed as harmless, defence spending as wasteful, NATO measures as provocative, and Lithuania as incapable of resisting Russia or relying on its allies.

BECID assesses the narrative as HIGH risk. By simultaneously suggesting that defence is unnecessary and that resistance would be futile, it can weaken public support for defence and confidence in NATO’s collective defence.

The report recommends focusing on observable security developments, clearly explaining the purpose of deterrence, and distinguishing between current hybrid threats, military capabilities and the risk of future conventional aggression.

Read the full BECID Hot Report: